High Transmission Rates of Early Omicron Subvariant BA.2 in Bangkok, Thailand

Figure 3

Estimated transmission rate ratios for Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 variants relative to the Delta variant (a) and goodness of fit between estimated transmission rates and observations (b). (a) Variant abundance data from local cohorts, GISAID entries for Bangkok, and GISAID entries for Thailand were used. The distributions of the rate ratios were estimated from 100 optimization repeats with different randomly initialized values (see Methods). Mean values were denoted by orange bars. Boxes indicate the interquartile ranges. Whiskers indicate the 1.5x ranges below the first and above the third quartiles. Circles denote outliers. (b) Scatter plots show the agreement between observed variant frequencies and case counts versus the predictions based on estimated transmission rates. Each data point corresponds to a 5-day period from November 2021 to March 2022. Results for the estimated transmission rates with the lowest mean square error on data from our hospital are shown.

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