Model Selection and Parameter Estimation for an Improved Approximate Bayesian Computation Sequential Monte Carlo Algorithm

<div>Parameter histograms of logistic model of the IABC-SMC algorithm. (a) Estimation of <span class="nowrap"><svg height="6.1673pt" id="M175" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 5.60619 6.1673" width="5.60619pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M393 379C402 394 400 411 393 422C384 437 365 448 348 448C301 448 237 372 186 285H182L193 335C210 408 205 448 178 448C150 448 80 402 29 344L45 321C80 355 114 373 122 373C128 373 130 365 124 330C106 228 76 98 50 -5L57 -12C82 -5 112 3 132 6L172 203C196 256 234 304 254 329C275 355 293 367 306 367C318 367 330 360 342 348C347 343 355 343 365 350S386 367 393 379Z"></path></g></svg>.</span> (b) Estimation of <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.68572pt" id="M176" style="vertical-align:-0.0498209pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 9.95144 8.68572" width="9.95144pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M743 650H503L496 622L527 618C563 613 564 603 532 573C449 495 371 431 323 392C301 374 272 355 246 346L280 522C297 609 300 614 379 622L385 650H135L129 622C209 614 215 609 198 522L124 133C106 39 99 35 23 28L17 0H271L277 28C193 35 192 39 208 133L239 316C264 328 280 325 303 288C368 183 435 90 502 0H652L659 28C602 34 584 43 543 94C495 154 403 283 347 369L574 554C634 603 659 612 735 624L743 650Z"></path></g></svg>.</span> Here, the initial states are <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.599pt" id="M177" style="vertical-align:-3.2911pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.3079 222.969 12.599" width="222.969pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M495 86L479 114C446 82 419 66 409 66C401 66 401 72 406 97C420 166 436 231 453 297C489 435 454 448 428 448C406 448 384 439 354 422C305 394 222 327 161 247H159L183 345C200 415 194 448 173 448C143 448 82 410 23 351L38 325C64 349 95 371 105 371C111 371 116 365 109 336L25 -4L31 -12C50 -4 77 3 107 9C119 69 132 122 145 168C197 254 321 381 370 381C387 381 393 374 378 305L329 95C309 17 320 -12 345 -12C372 -12 430 19 495 86Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.158,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.421,0)"><path d="M137 343C167 482 260 545 321 574C357 591 397 603 429 609L423 641C382 634 335 622 295 608C189 570 37 457 37 238C37 84 125 -12 242 -12C362 -12 447 89 447 209C447 311 374 393 267 393C247 393 226 386 204 376L137 343ZM227 337C318 337 361 256 361 173C361 105 336 22 258 22C176 22 126 120 126 240C126 266 127 291 132 310C155 323 189 337 227 337Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.661,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,33.901,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,40.141,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,46.381,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,51.524,0)"><path d="M536 404C536 423 520 448 491 448C445 448 398 404 308 283L286 338C255 416 242 448 217 448C182 448 138 402 92 341L111 321C149 368 169 378 178 378C188 378 198 363 214 320L254 212C185 117 138 65 107 65C98 65 85 69 82 75C79 82 73 86 65 86C44 86 23 60 23 39C23 7 44 -12 71 -12C119 -12 168 33 265 177L306 61C321 17 347 -12 373 -12C413 -12 465 33 507 96L491 119C459 84 432 60 413 60C395 60 378 92 358 148L321 250C341 279 369 310 389 332C417 363 439 382 456 382C466 382 475 376 481 368C486 361 492 358 496 358C513 358 536 381 536 404Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,58.726,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,67.305,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,78.568,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,84.808,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,89.951,0)"><path d="M483 97L471 123C436 91 401 65 392 65C388 65 384 74 390 106C414 239 444 378 457 429L455 433C444 433 429 436 416 439C392 444 368 448 344 448C281 448 204 415 152 376C71 315 23 205 23 103C23 21 57 -12 85 -12C114 -12 149 6 185 34C231 70 285 119 329 183H331L309 81C292 0 308 -12 326 -12C350 -12 421 24 483 97ZM374 387C370 363 356 291 345 261C315 193 181 50 139 50C124 50 110 71 110 118C110 224 153 331 218 379C238 394 271 402 301 402C329 402 359 394 374 387Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,100.163,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,111.426,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,117.666,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,120.63,0)"><path d="M456 178V225H360V632H320C217 496 115 347 20 206V178H280V106C280 40 276 34 189 27V0H445V27C364 34 360 39 360 106V178H456ZM280 225H82C149 335 214 431 278 520H280V225Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,126.87,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,132.013,0)"><path d="M620 675H597C578 656 570 650 541 650H144C112 650 104 653 94 675H72C59 618 42 552 23 493L53 491C71 534 88 564 105 585C124 608 144 615 238 615H290L197 121C182 40 174 34 88 28L82 0H361L367 28C275 34 266 38 281 121L374 615H441C522 615 543 608 553 583C562 560 566 531 565 493L597 494C603 551 612 629 620 675Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,143.93,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,155.193,0)"><path d="M137 343C167 482 260 545 321 574C357 591 397 603 429 609L423 641C382 634 335 622 295 608C189 570 37 457 37 238C37 84 125 -12 242 -12C362 -12 447 89 447 209C447 311 374 393 267 393C247 393 226 386 204 376L137 343ZM227 337C318 337 361 256 361 173C361 105 336 22 258 22C176 22 126 120 126 240C126 266 127 291 132 310C155 323 189 337 227 337Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,161.433,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,168.752,0)"><path d="M433 39L423 65C413 59 399 54 387 54C370 54 352 69 352 114V299C352 352 342 392 307 422C285 440 255 449 225 449C168 437 102 399 75 379C56 365 44 353 44 339C44 315 69 296 87 296C101 296 111 303 116 319C124 349 133 371 145 385C156 397 171 404 190 404C241 404 275 364 275 291V274C253 256 180 229 120 209C65 190 39 159 39 110C39 47 88 -12 159 -12C189 -12 237 25 277 52C282 35 288 21 301 8C312 -3 333 -12 348 -12L433 39ZM275 84C256 65 221 48 195 48C164 48 124 73 124 124C124 161 146 180 185 198C206 208 254 229 275 240V84Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,174.341,0)"><path d="M524 0V26C466 32 460 36 460 104V297C460 393 411 449 331 449C302 449 276 437 248 419C223 402 201 387 181 372V451C137 432 90 420 42 411V388C96 378 102 374 102 310V104C102 38 97 33 29 26V0H246V26C187 32 181 36 181 104V339C211 365 250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,181.4,0)"><path d="M517 51L485 54C448 58 441 63 441 115V712C404 700 337 684 285 678V653C357 648 362 645 362 580V437C339 446 309 449 295 449C159 449 38 340 38 201C38 61 143 -12 223 -12C234 -12 261 -6 301 17L362 53V-12C420 9 495 22 517 26V51ZM362 85C338 67 301 51 266 51C201 51 128 109 128 228C128 373 212 411 259 411C296 411 338 395 362 360V85Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,190.513,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,198.578,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,209.841,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,216.081,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g></svg>.</span></div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

fig1

Figure 1

Figure 1: Model Selection and Parameter Estimation for an Improved Approximate Bayesian Computation Sequential Monte Carlo Algorithm 