Model Selection and Parameter Estimation for an Improved Approximate Bayesian Computation Sequential Monte Carlo Algorithm

<table class="table-group" id="tab3"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="6"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Parameter</td><td class="align_center">Lower bound</td><td class="align_center">Upper bound</td><td class="align_center">Mean</td><td class="align_center">Std.</td><td class="align_center">[2.5th, 97.5th] percentiles</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="6"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 5.60619ptpx;"><svg height="6.1673pt" id="M178" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 5.60619 6.1673" width="5.60619pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M393 379C402 394 400 411 393 422C384 437 365 448 348 448C301 448 237 372 186 285H182L193 335C210 408 205 448 178 448C150 448 80 402 29 344L45 321C80 355 114 373 122 373C128 373 130 365 124 330C106 228 76 98 50 -5L57 -12C82 -5 112 3 132 6L172 203C196 256 234 304 254 329C275 355 293 367 306 367C318 367 330 360 342 348C347 343 355 343 365 350S386 367 393 379Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">1.7157</td><td class="align_center">1.8001</td><td class="align_center">1.7596</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 70.9164ptpx;"><svg height="11.9413pt" id="M179" style="vertical-align:-0.3499002pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 70.9164 11.9413" width="70.9164pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M447 623H65C61 580 56 530 47 475H76C100 541 106 550 172 550H388C308 376 196 170 91 -1L98 -12L172 -2C268 204 360 408 455 611L447 623Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.242,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.206,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.446,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.686,0)"><path d="M456 178V225H360V632H320C217 496 115 347 20 206V178H280V106C280 40 276 34 189 27V0H445V27C364 34 360 39 360 106V178H456ZM280 225H82C149 335 214 431 278 520H280V225Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.927,0)"><path d="M249 635C141 635 70 555 70 471C70 401 114 353 179 316C143 294 106 267 90 252C68 231 45 202 45 157C45 50 130 -12 237 -12C322 -12 435 52 435 169C435 256 372 304 303 343C349 374 375 398 383 407C401 429 411 458 411 487C411 569 344 635 249 635ZM238 603C285 603 337 567 337 482C337 422 310 385 276 358C205 393 145 426 145 500C145 552 179 603 238 603ZM248 20C183 20 125 70 125 163C125 218 158 268 206 300C284 261 355 217 355 143C355 66 308 20 248 20Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,37.072,0)"><path d="M528 54L331 254L528 455L492 493L294 291L96 493L60 455L257 254L60 54L96 16L294 217L492 16L528 54Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,47.609,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,53.849,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,60.136,-5.741)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,65.696,-5.741)"><path d="M462 177V227H365V632H320C217 496 116 350 21 208V177H284V109C284 43 280 38 190 31V0H451V31C369 38 365 43 365 108V177H462ZM284 227H88C155 336 218 430 282 519H284V227Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">[1.7231, 1.7927]</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 9.95144ptpx;"><svg height="8.68572pt" id="M180" style="vertical-align:-0.0498209pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 9.95144 8.68572" width="9.95144pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M743 650H503L496 622L527 618C563 613 564 603 532 573C449 495 371 431 323 392C301 374 272 355 246 346L280 522C297 609 300 614 379 622L385 650H135L129 622C209 614 215 609 198 522L124 133C106 39 99 35 23 28L17 0H271L277 28C193 35 192 39 208 133L239 316C264 328 280 325 303 288C368 183 435 90 502 0H652L659 28C602 34 584 43 543 94C495 154 403 283 347 369L574 554C634 603 659 612 735 624L743 650Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">45998</td><td class="align_center">50790</td><td class="align_center">48393</td><td class="align_center">42.6146</td><td class="align_center">[46351, 50413]</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="6"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>Parameter ranges and statistics of the logistic model.</div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

tab3

Table 3

Table 3: Model Selection and Parameter Estimation for an Improved Approximate Bayesian Computation Sequential Monte Carlo Algorithm 