Model Selection and Parameter Estimation for an Improved Approximate Bayesian Computation Sequential Monte Carlo Algorithm

<table class="table-group" id="tab7"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="6"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Parameter</td><td class="align_center">Lower bound</td><td class="align_center">Upper bound</td><td class="align_center">Mean</td><td class="align_center">Std.</td><td class="align_center">[2.5th, 97.5th] percentiles</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="6"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 5.60619ptpx;"><svg height="6.1673pt" id="M240" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 5.60619 6.1673" width="5.60619pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M393 379C402 394 400 411 393 422C384 437 365 448 348 448C301 448 237 372 186 285H182L193 335C210 408 205 448 178 448C150 448 80 402 29 344L45 321C80 355 114 373 122 373C128 373 130 365 124 330C106 228 76 98 50 -5L57 -12C82 -5 112 3 132 6L172 203C196 256 234 304 254 329C275 355 293 367 306 367C318 367 330 360 342 348C347 343 355 343 365 350S386 367 393 379Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">1.5983</td><td class="align_center">1.6889</td><td class="align_center">1.6442</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 70.9164ptpx;"><svg height="11.786pt" id="M241" style="vertical-align:-0.3499002pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.4361 70.9164 11.786" width="70.9164pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M137 343C167 482 260 545 321 574C357 591 397 603 429 609L423 641C382 634 335 622 295 608C189 570 37 457 37 238C37 84 125 -12 242 -12C362 -12 447 89 447 209C447 311 374 393 267 393C247 393 226 386 204 376L137 343ZM227 337C318 337 361 256 361 173C361 105 336 22 258 22C176 22 126 120 126 240C126 266 127 291 132 310C155 323 189 337 227 337Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.204,0)"><path d="M447 623H65C61 580 56 530 47 475H76C100 541 106 550 172 550H388C308 376 196 170 91 -1L98 -12L172 -2C268 204 360 408 455 611L447 623Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.446,0)"><path d="M137 343C167 482 260 545 321 574C357 591 397 603 429 609L423 641C382 634 335 622 295 608C189 570 37 457 37 238C37 84 125 -12 242 -12C362 -12 447 89 447 209C447 311 374 393 267 393C247 393 226 386 204 376L137 343ZM227 337C318 337 361 256 361 173C361 105 336 22 258 22C176 22 126 120 126 240C126 266 127 291 132 310C155 323 189 337 227 337Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.687,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.927,0)"><path d="M447 623H65C61 580 56 530 47 475H76C100 541 106 550 172 550H388C308 376 196 170 91 -1L98 -12L172 -2C268 204 360 408 455 611L447 623Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,37.074,0)"><path d="M528 54L331 254L528 455L492 493L294 291L96 493L60 455L257 254L60 54L96 16L294 217L492 16L528 54Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,47.611,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,53.851,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,60.138,-5.741)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,65.698,-5.741)"><path d="M158 548H390L417 615L410 623H122L83 318C105 326 143 337 185 337C296 337 350 275 350 188C350 116 308 42 225 42C164 42 122 74 100 93C90 101 82 99 72 92C60 82 51 68 50 59C48 46 52 38 66 24C82 9 125 -12 172 -12C225 -11 292 15 346 59C408 108 437 166 437 226C437 309 371 397 242 397C214 397 170 382 133 369L158 548Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">[1.6022, 1.6833]</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 9.95144ptpx;"><svg height="8.68572pt" id="M242" style="vertical-align:-0.0498209pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 9.95144 8.68572" width="9.95144pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M743 650H503L496 622L527 618C563 613 564 603 532 573C449 495 371 431 323 392C301 374 272 355 246 346L280 522C297 609 300 614 379 622L385 650H135L129 622C209 614 215 609 198 522L124 133C106 39 99 35 23 28L17 0H271L277 28C193 35 192 39 208 133L239 316C264 328 280 325 303 288C368 183 435 90 502 0H652L659 28C602 34 584 43 543 94C495 154 403 283 347 369L574 554C634 603 659 612 735 624L743 650Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">125130</td><td class="align_center">139520</td><td class="align_center">132460</td><td class="align_center">93.6276</td><td class="align_center">[125730, 138640]</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="6"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>Parameter ranges and statistics of logistic model.</div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

tab7

Table 7

Table 7: Model Selection and Parameter Estimation for an Improved Approximate Bayesian Computation Sequential Monte Carlo Algorithm 