Forecasting of Energy Production for Photovoltaic Systems Based on ARIMA and ANN Advanced Models

Table 9

Main results of the energy production by the experimental PV park from Grojdibodu forecasted for the period 01-09.08.2013.

Day	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Hours when the inverter is running (solar  W/m^2)	13.75	13.25	13	13	13	13.25	13	13	13
Total	26,565	25,599	25,116	25,116	25,116	25,599	25,116	25,116	25,116
Total solar irradiance (Wh/m^2)	6,103.6	7,240.3	7,416.6	6,091	7,388.08	7,101.34	7,214.13	7,285.4	7,325.3
Exported active energy (MWh)	50.77	59.48	60.74	48.49	60.18	56.62	59	59.16	59.54
PR (%) calculated in SCADA	83.51	82.55	82.22	79.99	81.83	80.07	82.12	81.54	81.66
Real availability (%)	100	100	100	97.5	98.84	98.11	100	100	100
Availability given by the manufacturer (%)	100	100	100	97.5	98.84	100	100	100	100
Events in which energy production is disrupted	—	—	—	Inverter off 6 hours	Inverter: motherboard damaged (replaced)	Inverter off 15 min	—	—	—
String hours with energy loss	—	—	—	627.9	291.34	483.82	—	—	—
Estimated energy losses (MWh)	—	—	—	1.8	0.4	1.75	—	—	—