International Journal of Photoenergy / 2021 / Article / Tab 3 / Research Article
Sky Image-Based Localized, Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting for Multiple PV Sites via Cloud Motion Tracking Table 3 RMSE, MAE, and TS for irradiance forecasts and irradiance forecasts at location 1 (onsite forecasting) with three-level irradiance drop percentages and with 40% irradiance drop assumption (Sn: sunny; Oc: overcast; Pc: partially cloudy).
Date Sky condition Time horizon Forecast with three-level cloud categorization Forecast with 40% drop assumption [10 , 14 ] TS/(%) RMSE/(Wm-2 ) MAE/(Wm-2 ) SF RMSE/(Wm-2 ) MAE/(Wm-2 ) SF 07/09/2019 (Sn) 1 min 37 29 -0.63 37 29 -0.63 98 5 min 37 28 -0.02 37 28 -0.02 99 15 min 36 28 0.41 36 28 0.41 99 08/09/2019 (Sn) 1 min 20 16 -8.6 20 16 -8.6 99 5 min 20 16 -0.16 20 16 -0.16 100 15 min 19 15 0.62 19 15 0.62 100 11/09/2019 (Sn) 1 min 13 10 -3.5 13 11 -3.5 98 5 min 12 10 0.28 12 10 0.28 93 15 min 12 10 0.76 15 10 0.76 98 13/04/2019 (Pc) 1 min 157 92 -0.20 164 96 -0.25 70 5 min 213 143 -0.12 229 157 -0.21 62 15 min 199 120 0.00 202 123 -0.01 61 08/05/2019 (Pc) 1 min 142 92 -0.13 144 92 -0.15 88 5 min 142 94 0.10 142 94 0.09 87 15 min 151 101 0.24 151 101 0.23 84 28/07/2019 (Pc) 1 min 136 86 -0.89 144 90 -0.99 79 5 min 137 88 0.02 148 95 -0.06 78 15 min 144 89 0.13 146 89 0.12 75 29/07/2019 (Pc) 1 min 113 69 -1.20 118 79 -1.29 80 5 min 122 73 -0.04 126 81 -0.07 81 15 min 157 99 0.13 158 104 0.13 62 30/07/2019 (Pc) 1 min 106 51 -1.71 111 50 -1.85 76 5 min 107 55 -0.53 114 54 -0.63 65 15 min 80 42 0.19 76 36 0.23 68 10/09/2019 (Pc) 1 min 162 100 -0.87 162 100 0.87 79 5 min 167 53 -0.27 167 102 -0.27 63 15 min 130 75 0.11 129 75 0.12 72 09/04/2019 (Oc) 1 min 230 143 -0.64 240 163 -0.71 72 5 min 224 141 -0.02 228 155 -0.04 74 15 min 307 230 -0.20 314 243 -0.23 65 05/05/2019 (Oc) 1 min 160 118 -1.01 160 119 -1.01 81 5 min 206 153 -0.25 206 152 -0.25 66 15 min 265 220 -0.11 263 218 -0.10 42 12/09/2019 (Oc) 1 min 168 121 -3.6 166 126 -3.55 61 5 min 188 136 -1.17 183 138 -1.10 63 15 min 173 119 -0.26 167 122 -0.23 42