Stochastic Methodology for the Study of an Epidemic Decay Phase, Based on a Branching Model

Table 3

Cumulative distribution function of the total size of the epidemic for the infection parameters 𝜃^obs_min=2.3842 and 𝜃^obs_max=2.4805 defined by (3.5). The values in bold character correspond to the 𝑝-quantiles 𝑛^𝑁_𝑝 for 𝑝=0.5, 0.95, and 0.99, and to the asymptotic confidence intervals of ℙ_𝜃0(𝑁⩽𝑛^𝑁_𝑝).

𝑛	ℙ𝜃^obsmax(𝑁⩽𝑛)	ℙ𝜃^obsmin(𝑁⩽𝑛)	𝑛	ℙ𝜃^obsmax(⋯)	ℙ𝜃^obsmin(⋯)	𝑛	ℙ𝜃^obsmax(⋯)	ℙ𝜃^obsmin(⋯)
⋯	⋯	⋯	16	0.1293	0.1669	28	0.8702	0.9048
5	0.0001	0.0000	17	0.1795	0.2263	29	0.8942	0.9302
6	0.0002	0.0003	18	0.2373	0.2915	30	0.9283	0.9495
7	0.0005	0.0008	19	0.3025	0.3637	31	0.9480	0.9646
8	0.0013	0.0020	20	0.3741	0.4409	32	0.9635	0.9759
9	0.0027	0.0046	21	0.4486	0.5189	33	0.9742	0.9838
10	0.0060	0.0094	22	0.5231	0.5934	34	0.9824	0.9892
11	0.0119	0.0178	23	0.5975	0.6639	35	0.9881	0.9928
12	0.0214	0.0310	24	0.6655	0.7287	36	0.9917	0.9952
13	0.0365	0.0518	25	0.7282	0.7840	37	0.9945	0.9968
14	0.0585	0.0801	26	0.7829	0.8323	38	0.9964	0.9980
15	0.0891	0.1181	27	0.8304	0.8726	39	0.9977	0.9989