Variability Modeling of Rainfall, Deforestation, and Incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Orán, Argentina, 1985–2007

<div>The 2-year variance times series for relative (sqrt) incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis cases (red line) and linear piecewise function <svg height="13.2498pt" id="M83" style="vertical-align:-3.571899pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.6779 29.0345 13.2498" width="29.0345pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M619 670C619 686 593 712 555 712S459 686 410 634S335 504 320 430H250L219 400L222 388H312L258 73C223 -133 201 -166 187 -180C175 -191 158 -199 140 -199C123 -199 88 -188 74 -172C68 -166 63 -164 54 -171C38 -185 23 -201 23 -215C23 -236 60 -261 93 -261C122 -261 161 -247 207 -200C268 -138 300 -71 337 94C365 220 376 277 394 387L501 399L521 430H401C432 623 464 665 501 665C524 665 544 651 567 627C577 617 583 618 592 625C601 631 619 651 619 670Z" id="g113-103"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="642" vert-adv-y="642"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,7.004,3.264)"><path d="M786 370C786 572 637 650 431 650H137L130 618C217 606 220 603 204 519L129 127C115 48 107 39 26 30L18 0H270C410 0 516 20 609 75C722 140 786 240 786 370ZM683 373C683 178 547 40 323 40C298 40 264 40 241 45C213 51 207 64 220 127L295 545C304 582 309 595 320 601C335 610 367 613 406 613C570 613 683 538 683 373Z" id="g50-69"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="810" vert-adv-y="810"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,14.861,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,19.549,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z" id="g113-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="341" vert-adv-y="341"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,24.169,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g></svg> for annual average deforestation (green line) in Departament of Orán, Salta, Argentina, period 1985–2007.</div>

Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases

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Figure 9

Figure 9: Variability Modeling of Rainfall, Deforestation, and Incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Orán, Argentina, 1985–2007 