Research Article
A Crude Oil Spot Price Forecasting Method Incorporating Quadratic Decomposition and Residual Forecasting
Table 7
Comparison of forecasting performance of different models.
| Prediction horizon | Model | Error indicator | MAE | MSE | | MAPE |
| Brent | Model 1 | 0.75640808 | 7.235322874 | 0.979393405 | 1.499175621 | Model 2 | 3.084721757 | 15.02700232 | 0.957202277 | 4.834750621 | Model 3 | 2.552414749 | 11.26246556 | 0.967923883 | 4.14440152 | Model 4 | 4.327111644 | 32.68631888 | 0.906907579 | 6.858666476 | Model 5 | 7.540650463 | 54.22654482 | 0.674676565 | 5.111353319 | Model 6 | 3.048104627 | 16.97328049 | 0.951659171 | 4.119864135 | Model 7 | 2.176896112 | 7.885804418 | 0.977540799 | 3.496302775 | Model 8 | 0.935671962 | 0.875608146 | 0.997506377 | 1.541913286 | Model 9 | 0.923817867 | 0.853850097 | 0.997568188 | 1.522745834 | Model 10 | 0.277028123 | 0.109454043 | 0.999688269 | 0.457206033 | Model 11 | 0.266495464 | 0.071089735 | 0.999797533 | 0.439362401 | Model 12 | 0.266489663 | 0.071086592 | 0.999797542 | 0.439354093 | Model 13 | 0.253209173 | 0.065713872 | 0.999812843 | 0.416608602 |
| WTI | Model 1 | 1.727588906 | 23.19526068 | 0.933607765 | 3.549475148 | Model 2 | 2.751387662 | 14.0782922 | 0.959703437 | 4.888496881 | Model 3 | 2.607948718 | 15.06218041 | 0.956887235 | 4.723907996 | Model 4 | 4.602267573 | 36.04344152 | 0.896832172 | 8.305570286 | Model 5 | 6.065383929 | 41.74257749 | 0.794649857 | 4.10834166 | Model 6 | 3.094695824 | 20.77134049 | 0.940545797 | 5.078767711 | Model 7 | 1.857406191 | 5.993485395 | 0.982844733 | 3.407799122 | Model 8 | 1.08142759 | 1.453631162 | 0.995814806 | 1.961160398 | Model 9 | 0.990683307 | 1.003060623 | 0.997128921 | 1.791215044 | Model 10 | 0.358825088 | 0.134193663 | 0.999615895 | 0.647166427 | Model 11 | 0.112444806 | 0.012667775 | 0.999963741 | 0.203303061 | Model 12 | 0.112436505 | 0.012665842 | 0.999963746 | 0.20328829 | Model 13 | 0.105476793 | 0.012019929 | 0.999964732 | 0.19782242 |
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Bold values indicate that model 13 is the best experimental result among the 13 compared models.
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